OKBET NBA Most Improved Player Odds & Pick
Every year we have OKBET NBA Most Improved Player, the NBA bestows six major individual awards. There is a general consensus on who will win for five of them:
- MVP — Most valuable player on the most valuable team
- Rookie of the Year — The rookie with the highest total of points.
- Sixth Man of the Year — Most productive bench player
- Defensive Player of the Year — A top-five defense’s elite big man.
- Coach of the Year — Coach of the most successful team.
OKBET NBA Most Improved Player, those broad strokes don’t always apply on NBA Most Improved Player but it’s amazing how frequently these five awards can be reduced to something so basic. The one award for which we don’t have a simple explanation is Most Improved Player (MIP).
So, who wins Most Improved Player, and how should we choose our best bets for the new season at OKBet Basketball?
We’ll be watching this race all year, so let’s start by compiling a list of previous winners and considering preseason options from each team. This process correctly led us to Ja Morant at +3000 last fall and identified Bam Adebayo as the 2019 pick at +3400.
Who will be crowned the Most Improved Player?
Let’s begin by looking at the last ten Most Improved Players:
- 2022 Ja Morant, 22, increased his score from 19/4/7 to 27/6/7.
- 2021 Julius Randle, 26, increased his score from 20/10/3 to 24/10/6.
- Brandon Ingram, 22, improved from 18/5/3 to 24/6/4 in 2020.
- 2019 Pascal Siakam, 24, increased his score from 7/5/2 to 17/7/3.
- 2018 Victor Oladipo, 25, went from 16/4/3 to 23/5/4.
- 2017 Giannis Antetokounmpo, 22, increased his scoring from 17/8/4 to 23/9/5.
- CJ McCollum, 24, improved from 7/2/1 to 21/3/4 in 2016.
- 2015 Jimmy Butler, 25, went from 13/5/3 to 20/6/3.
- 2014 Goran Dragic, 27, increased his score from 15/3/7 to 20/3/6.
- 2013 Paul George, 22, went from 12/6/2 to 17/8/4.
Have you noticed any patterns? This is what I see.
- Numbers, particularly points, are important.
Unsurprisingly, MIPs experience a significant increase in counting numbers not just scoring at OKBET Basketball. With the exception of Dragic and Morant, nearly every MIP over the last decade improved in points, rebounds, and assists. Take a look at the before and after:
- Prior to MIP, he averaged 14.5 points, 5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game.
- 21 points for a winning season 4.5 assists and 6 rebounds
Points are still king, with a nearly 50% increase. All ten MIPs averaged at least 17 PPG, eight averaged more than 20, and our last three winners averaged more than 24 at OKBET NBA Most Improved Player.
- They’re young and in their early stages of their careers, but not too young.
Four of our ten MIPs were under the age of 22. Four more were either 24 or 25. Randle (26) and Dragic (27) were both in their late twenties.
Seven of our ten MIPs were in their third or fourth year of competition. Veteran outliers included Oladipo (Year 5), Dragic (Year 6), and Randle (Year 7). Monta Ellis (2007) and Gilbert Arenas (2007) were the only sophomore MIPs since the early 1990s (2003).
According to history on OKBET NBA Most Improved Player, we’re looking for a player between the ages of 22 and 25, likely in their third or fourth season. Our typical MIP is 24 years old at OKBet Basketball.
- All ten winners were named All-Stars and All-NBA.
It’s clear what kind of “improvement” voters are looking for. This is not an award for players who rose from the depths of the roster to a regular rotation spot, nor is it for players who have been surprisingly consistent.
Most importantly at OKBET NBA Most Improved Player, it isn’t for guys like Miles Bridges or Jerami Grant, who took on new high-usage roles and saw a dramatic increase in counting numbers despite not looking like a star. This award used to go to someone with that kind of profile, but not anymore.
Our last six MIPs all made their first All-Star Game, and none of the last ten had previously made an ASG. Six of the ten also made All-NBA, with three close calls and only McCollum not receiving a vote. There are 24 All-Stars and 15 NBA All-Stars. We’re hoping for a star to break through into the top 15 to 25. Anything less isn’t good enough in today’s NBA OKBet Basketall.
- Winning is also important.
Surprise! You probably didn’t think winning was important for MIP, but history proves otherwise. Nine of our ten MIPs advanced to the playoffs. The lone exception (Ingram) was a razor-thin victory over Bam Adebayo, whose Heat advanced to the Finals. Most MIPs are like Morant or Randle in that they make the playoffs but don’t advance very far at OKBet Basketball.
Our Most Improved Player can’t be on a bottom feeder, but he also can’t be on a title contender. We need to make improvements.
Our winning Most Improved Player profile is as follows:
We’re looking for a player between the ages of 22 and 25 entering their third or fourth season who appears poised to jump into All-NBA consideration — and we’re looking for someone with a 40-to-50% increase in PPG who is poised to make the playoffs.
OKBET NBA Most Improved Player, let us now consider our options now that we have a profile. We’ll start with the favorite, then eliminate players who don’t fit our profile, grouped by red flag, before settling on the best bets for the new season.
The Most Popular
+1000 Anthony Edwards
Ant Man is a rising star following a breakout playoff series in which he averaged 25 points per game and a standout performance in Netflix’s Hustle this summer. He exudes stardom, appears poised to make an All-Star appearance, and leads a team that is expected to surge into true playoff contention following the Rudy Gobert trade at OKBet NBA Basketball.
Edwards averaged 19.3 points per game as a rookie and 21.3 points per game last season. To fit our typical scoring leap, he’d have to jump all the way to 30 PPG, close to the league leaders, while sharing the scoring load with Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Gobert. If he can do that, Edwards could be a better MVP sleeper than a MIP candidate.
Edwards is only 21 years old, so he falls short of our age range. He’d be the youngest MIP since Monta Ellis in 2007, and he’d be tied for the youngest of all time. He also recently made ESPN’s NBA Rank top 25 — and it’s difficult to jump into the top 25 players if you’re already regarded as one.
None of this means Ant Man can’t win, but he fails to meet two of our four criteria, so he’s not worth a wager as a relatively short favorite.
Let’s go through the same procedure to eliminate some more candidates.
Already too good to win MIP
- RJ Barrett +2200
- Zion Williamson +1600
These former Duke teammates are already too good at OKBET NBA Most Improved Player, as both are coming off 20-point seasons. Barrett is already at that level, so he’d need to reach the high 20s or 30s. That, along with an All-NBA selection, is too much to ask, especially since he is now sharing the ball with Jalen Brunson.
Williamson would be a complete outlier if he were to win. He scored 27.0 PPG the last time we saw him, so a typical MIP rate of improvement would put him close to 40 PPG, an impossible goal. We have also yet to see a MIP winner the year after missing a full season. If Zion truly improves from what we’ve seen so far, he’ll be an MVP bet rather than a MIP winner at OKBet Basketball.
- +3300 Cade Cunningham
- +4000 Jalen Green
- +4000 Scottie Barnes
- +4000 Alperen Sengun
- +4600 Evan Mobley
- +4200 Josh Giddey
Keep in mind that we haven’t had a sophomore MIP winner in 15 years. Voters have shown a tendency to dismiss sophomore leaps as an expectation for young players following their rookie season. I know you’re enthusiastic about these kids, but the results speak for themselves. It’s a risky bet to back a sophomore, especially since most of these players are unlikely to make the playoffs.
Consider this: by removing these guys from our list, we’re removing 15% of the implied winner value, effectively narrowing one-sixth of our field.
Three No. 2 picks have won MIP in recent years, indicating that voters aren’t opposed to a top pick. From the All-Star break to the end of March, Cunningham averaged 22.4/5.9/6.6. He could make a case if he takes another step forward and leads the Pistons to the playoffs.
Even if they are competent, their teams are not.
- +1500 Tyrese Haliburton
- +3500 Collin Sexton
- +3500 Devin Vassell
- Lauri Markkanen +5500
- Keldon Johnson +3600
OKBET NBA Most Improved Player is about more than just numbers. Voters have made it clear that numbers must matter by supporting a team that plays competitive games on OKBET NBA Basketball.
These five players should see significant increases in their numbers, but each of them plays for a team that was ranked in the bottom five in terms of win totals entering the season, all with less than 25 wins. MIP is doomed, according to history. Nine of the last ten winners advanced to the playoffs, and even Ingram had a 34-win season.
You’re out of luck unless one of these candidates wins 35-45 percent of the vote. A lot can go wrong on tanking teams, including breakout players who are so good that they get shut down late and miss out on MIP, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did.
Longshot Cash Out Bets
- +10000 Cole Anthony
- +15000 Jalen Suggs
- +12500 Franz Wagner
- +16000 Tre Jones
- +25000 Talen Horton-Tucker
These players fall squarely into the group above because they are unlikely to make the playoffs on OKBET NBA Most Improved Player, but they are sharp long shot cash out plays, with odds that could drop to 50-to-1, 25-to-1, or lower and pay off your investment.
San Antonio and Utah blew up their rosters, giving them a ton of usage and shots. Someone has to deliver for these teams. Jones, who averaged 14/5/8 in 10 games with 30+ minutes last year, may be San Antonio’s default starting point guard. Anthony averaged 20/7/6 in his first month before getting hurt, and with Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris out, Orlando has a lot of guard minutes available.
These guys are unlikely to win because they will not be All-Stars on playoff teams, but the cash-out value could be substantial at OKBET NBA Basketball.
They’re good, but will they ever be great?
- Tyrese Maxey +3000
- Anfernee Simons +3600
- OG Anunoby +4000
- +4200 Jordan Poole
These are some of the league’s bright young stars, but we need a superstar leap — someone who can jump into the league’s top 15 to 25 players, make the All-Star Game, and compete for All-NBA honors.
Fringe Play-In Teams’ Star Point Guards
- +3000 LaMelo Ball
- +12000 De’Aaron Fox
After averaging 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 7.6 assists and making the All-Star Game, Ball may join Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett in the “too good already” category. The difference is that Ball plays on a team that is missing Miles Bridges, leaving 20/7/4 up for grabs.
Could Ball eat some of that and jump to 28 and 9 with a Trae Young-like season? That could even earn him All-NBA consideration if the Hornets also make the play-in.
Isn’t De’Aaron Fox a better version of the same story? You might think Fox went backwards after adding Domantas Sabonis, but the opposite was true. Fox had a rough season prior to the trade, averaging 21 points and 5 assists per game, but improved to 28.9 and 6.8 after Sabonis arrived.
The Kings should be one of the league’s fastest and highest-scoring teams, and Fox has already provided proof of concept, as the numbers jumped to 29/7 following the Sabonis trade. Fox would get a lot of attention if he helped the Kings end the league’s longest playoff drought and made his first All-Star Game at OKBET NBA Basketball.
At 150-to-1, De’Aaron Fox is the best long shot MIP play on the board.
Best Bets for the Most Improved Player
- +4000 Michael Porter Jr.
Porter was one of the MIP favorites at +1400 entering last season before being sidelined by injuries. He only appeared in nine games and did not even average ten points per game.
But the last time we saw MPJ in good health, he was breaking out right in front of our eyes. Porter averaged 24.6 points, 7 rebounds, and 3.5 three-pointers per game in 20 games after Jamal Murray was injured in spring 2021, shooting 56/45/85 and resembling a taller Klay Thompson.
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