Actual OKBET NBA basketball is back, and although teams gear up, the time to wager futures as the regular season approaches is closing. But don’t worry, the Buckets podcast has been breaking down every team, division, and player (you can listen here).
In terms of preseason win totals, I’ll begin with the Southwest division (probably the most interesting in the league), which includes the rising Memphis Grizzlies, Western Conference finalist Dallas Mavericks, and possibly dangerous New Orleans Pelicans at OKBET NBA.
Here’s how I’m betting (or not betting) on each club in the Southwest. Keep an eye out for further division previews during the next two weeks of preseason.
44.5 New Orleans Pelicans
Willie Green is a plus-EV coach, Zion Williamson is returning, and the floor is a.500 squad at OKBET NBA. In 2021, Williamson was one of the most efficient and offensively impacting players in NBA history, and he’s returned to a club that reached the playoffs the previous season.
After a 1-12 start, the Pelicans finished.500 and.500 after signing CJ McCollum, despite injuries to McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, and Brandon Ingram. As a result, a pre-Zion floor is still.500. With defensive wunderkind Herb Jones, shooter Trey Murphy, and newcomer Dyson Daniels, their youthful potential is outstanding at OKBET NBA.
Key Trend: In the previous ten years, teams who ended below.500 but had a victory total stated above.500 went 14-9 to the over (61%).
Bottom Line: Without Williamson, the Pelicans finished barely under.500 last season. You must determine how many victories you believe Williamson is worth to the total and how many you believe you will play. However, most data says that the floor for this squad without Williamson is.500, which means that even in a low-performance scenario, you only need an impact of four wins from Williamson to hit the over. The spectrum of possible outcomes is substantially skewed toward the positive.
Best Bet: While I like their division odds (+400 or higher), over 44.5 is a 2-unit play for me. Depending on the book, you may also find 43.5.
49.5 Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have become worse, while the Western Conference has improved, and the line is too high. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out between October and January; conditioning and the like might keep him out until later in that time period at OKBET NBA.
The Grizzlies lost Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton during the offseason, and their replacements are inexperienced and inexperienced. The West will witness the return of healthy Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Anthony Davis, and Zion Williamson.
Over the last ten years, teams who win 55 games or more have gone 17-12 (58.6%) under the next season. In the past ten years, teams that won 55 games against a win total of less than 50 the previous season have gone 7-4 to the under.
Bottom Line: Memphis is ready for a decline following a remarkable season in which everything went perfectly. They fit the characteristics of a squad that struggles to be the hunted rather than the hunter, particularly with a little inferior roster. Even with head coach Taylor Jenkins and Desmond Bane being very essential to the over, Memphis may not win the division this season with a victory total of less than 48.
Under is the best bet (I took this at 51.5, but like it at 49.5 or better)
48.5 Dallas Mavericks
The effect of Jalen Brunson’s departure is overstated by the market, while Luka Doncic is in peak form for an all-time season at OKBET NBA. Doncic competed in EuroBasket in September, which means he’s in the finest form of his career to begin an NBA season.
Tim Hardaway Jr. returns, and the acquisitions of Christian Wood and JaVale McGee offer greater weapons for Doncic to generate rim gravity and open things up on the perimeter. Last season, the Mavericks’ defense was aggressive on the edge, but not in a simple blitzing manner.
With improved rim protection this season and the return of all important perimeter defenders, there’s no reason to believe Dallas’ defense will regress much.
Key Trends: Teams with a four-or-more-win decline from the previous season have gone under in 35 of 60 (58%) of the past ten seasons. Dallas had a +1.5 discrepancy between their actual and pythagorean projected victories (based on point differential vs. strength of schedule). In the previous ten years, teams with a +1.5 disparity in actual victories vs. pythagorean expectations have won 52% of the time.
Bottom line: I’m going with the over. Doncic should have a career (and maybe all-time) season based on use and effectiveness, as well as his physical condition. That, along with the existing infrastructure, causes me to lean in, but the number is large enough to keep me away. I believe there is some value on the Mavericks winning the division at a plus number.
Spurs, San Antonio 23.5
The Spurs have some surprise talent, and with Gregg Popovich perhaps coaching in his last season, they should be strong compared to market expectations. The over is concerned about the imminent necessity of tanking to get a top-3 selection at OKBET NBA. Tre Jones stood out as one of the league’s most effective pick-and-roll scorers last season, thanks to a terrific floater. He’s a name that most people won’t recognize, yet he can actually assist the Spurs.
Keldon Johnson should be considered for Most Improved Player if the Spurs are any good. His overall shooting efficiency was remarkable, and he’ll get more action this season. San Antonio is generally anticipated to attempt to trade veterans like Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson to clubs in need of assistance, leaving the Spurs with less skilled and experienced players as they chase a chance to choose Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson next summer.
Key Trends: Teams with 25 or fewer victories have gone over somewhat more often (55%) in the previous ten years. Teams with a win total that has declined by more than ten points from the previous season (34 wins for San Antonio last season vs. a 23.5 line) have gone 16-9 to the under (64%), suggesting that the market can effectively identify when a club is actively moving away from being competitive.
Bottom line: Avoid. The number is just too low to bet on the under with confidence. How many victories do they need to have an equal chance at the No. 1 pick? The lowest three clubs each have a 14% probability of winning the championship. Do 25 victories get them there? Do they have to be in their twenties?
The Spurs won 20 games the previous time they attempted to tank to obtain Tim Duncan, in 1997. The margin is just too thin to take the under, and there is no reason to play the over on a club that has openly announced by trade that it does not want to win.
23.5 Houston Rockets
Houston is a promising club with poor facilities and a terrible record. Houston has two top-three choices in Jalen Green and Jabari Smith, as well as youthful talent like Alperen Sengun and Usman Garuba at OKBET NBA. Coaching is a major concern, since the Houston offense was one of the most disorganized and unprepared last season.
Houston is expected to want to win, particularly considering Silas’ delicate situation, but if they are still on track for a sub-30 finish by midseason, they will likely aggressively convert to a tank once again
Surprisingly, I am more optimistic about their defense than their offense, with Sengun demonstrating strong rim protection reflexes and scheme adaptability, although the bar remains extremely low.
Key Trends: In the previous ten years, teams with a victory total of 25 or less have gone over significantly more often (55%). In the previous ten years, teams with a bottom-5 offensive and defensive ranking (through Cleaning The Glass) have gone 10-5 to the over (67%).
Bottom line: Avoid. The original line of 27.5 was soft to the under, but it was quickly bet off the board. The new high of 23.5 isn’t enough to convince me to bet on the under, but I’d lean that way. I can make a solid case for both the under and the over.
One thing to consider: if the Rockets don’t start well and Silas is fired before the conclusion of the season, an interim coach may take over. I simply don’t see any benefit here.
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